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Admin06.08.2021

Business Cycle Dating

The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough.
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Admin18.08.2021

Business Cycle Dating

If people , they won't be able to spend money, leading to suffering businesses and a chain of further problems.
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Admin14.07.2021

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (FRED:USREC) — Historical Data and Chart — TradingView

Ultimately, a recession occurs when our economy is in a slump, pieces of the economy are flowing in the wrong direction, and people fear for our nation's financial well-being.
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Admin16.07.2021

Business Cycle Dating

In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.
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Admin04.09.2021

NBER Recession Indicators

For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading.
Admin08.07.2021

Recession Indicators: images.dujour.com Quite Strong

The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession.
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Admin30.07.2021

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USRECDM)

In determining that a trough occurred in April 2020, the committee did not conclude that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
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Admin06.08.2021

Recession

For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough.
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Admin05.08.2021

Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

Even in the event that activity began to decline again immediately, the committee would consider this a new recession, not a continuation of the previous recession.
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Admin19.06.2021

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (FRED:USREC) — Historical Data and Chart — TradingView

I use the 10-year Treasury bond minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield curve, which has a well-known history of successfully predicting recessions.
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